As of today, October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) has increased by +0.20 (+1.33%), while October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) is up +6.30 (+1.33%). Sugar prices are on the rise, reaching a four-week high following a five-month low last Thursday, due to expectations of tighter future sugar supplies. Covrig Analytics forecasts a global sugar deficit of -300,000 MT for 2026/27, reversing a previous surplus estimate of +100,000 MT from June. Additionally, Green Pool Commodity Specialists raised their forecast to a -3.3 MMT deficit, while StoneX adjusted its estimate to a -1.7 MMT deficit.
Concerns about India’s sugar crop, amplified by below-normal monsoon rainfall expectations reported by the Indian Meteorological Department, are influencing prices. The monsoon could be the weakest in 11 years, and the cumulative rainfall is currently 11% below normal as of August 5. An emerging El Niño weather pattern could further disrupt sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand, which are among the largest producers globally.
The USDA projects a decline in global sugar production for 2026/27 to 184.854 MMT, down 6.5% from a record of 186.056 MMT in 2025/26. Conversely, global sugar consumption is expected to rise by +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT. Brazilian sugar production is forecasted to fall 3% to 42.5 MMT, while India’s production may increase by 12% to 33.6 MMT due to favorable monsoon conditions.
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