On July 5, 2023, sugar prices fell, with July NY world sugar #11 down by $0.14 (0.83%) and August London ICE white sugar #5 down by $5.00 (1.06%). NY sugar recently hit a 3¾-year low, while London sugar reached a 4½-month low due to projections of increased sugar production in India, the world’s second-largest producer, which anticipates a 19% year-over-year rise in 2025/26 output to 35 million metric tons (MMT).
The USDA reported that global sugar production for 2025/26 is expected to increase by 4.7% year-over-year to a record 189.318 MMT, with a projected surplus of 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year. Brazil’s sugar production is also expected to rise by 2.3% to 44.7 MMT, while Thailand forecasts an increase of 2% to 10.3 MMT, contributing to bearish market sentiments surrounding sugar prices.
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