On February 12, sugar prices hit 5.25-year lows, with May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) down 1.51% to $0.79 and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) down 1.289% to $4.07. Analysts from Czarnikow predict a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in the previous year. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) also noted a projected surplus of +1.22 MMT for 2025/26, driven by increased output in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.
India’s sugar production from October 1 to February 28 rose 12% year-over-year to 24.75 MMT, with the Indian government approving an additional 500,000 MT for export for the 2025/26 season. Meanwhile, Brazil reported a 36% annual decline in sugar production in the second half of January, although overall output for 2025-26 remains up 0.9% at 40.24 MMT. Thailand anticipates a 5% increase in its sugar crop for 2025/26, forecasting production of 10.5 MMT.
