The dollar index fell by 0.10% on Monday, pressured by concerns over foreign investment after President Trump signed an executive order raising global tariffs from 10% to 15% following the Supreme Court’s rejection of his previous tariff policy. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January increased to 0.18, exceeding expectations of 0.01, while the February Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook rose to a 7-month high of 0.2, better than the anticipated -0.5.
Gold prices surged 2.85% to a three-week high, with silver rising 5.14%, driven by dollar weakness and increased demand for safe-haven metals amid geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran. The People’s Bank of China reported a 40,000-ounce increase in gold reserves to 74.19 million troy ounces in January, marking the fifteenth consecutive month of increases.
Swaps markets suggest a 5% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the March 17-18 meeting, with expectations for a total of 50 basis points in cuts by 2026, contrasting with anticipated rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. The euro gained slightly against the dollar, supported by a positive German IFO business climate survey, which rose to 88.6, higher than the forecasted 88.3.
