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Congress faces a midnight deadline on September 30 to keep the government funded, with a shutdown likely impacting nonessential functions and affecting hundreds of thousands of federal workers. Current odds of a shutdown exceeding 88% indicate potential furloughs and disruptions across multiple sectors, including defense and healthcare.
If an agreement is reached, a spending surge could occur as agencies rush to utilize remaining budgets, which totaled over $97 billion in similar circumstances during Trump’s first year in office. Over $7 trillion in money-market accounts is poised to enter the market, creating a significant pressure point that could lead to a major market move, irrespective of whether government functions continue or not.
This situation reflects a broader economic transformation driven by Trump’s policies, which are catalyzing major shifts worth trillions in capital flows. Investors are closely monitoring this scenario, as both shutdown and spending surge scenarios are expected to generate heightened market activity.
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