Cocoa prices surged on September 29, 2023, with September ICE NY cocoa up 13.42% to $5,676 per ton and September ICE London cocoa #7 increasing 12.23% to $4,460 per ton. This marks a 5.75-month high for NY cocoa and a 6-month high for London cocoa, driven by concerns over West African weather impacting supply.
Heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana have flooded roads, obstructing farm and port access and raising fears of crop diseases, which could diminish yields. The US NOAA estimates a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year, typically bringing adverse growing conditions to cocoa-producing regions. Moreover, early assessments predict a decline of 18% in the Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 cocoa crop, estimating it at 1.8 million metric tons compared to 2.2 million metric tons in 2025/26.
Despite recent inventory increases, with ICE cocoa inventories reaching nearly a 2-year high of 3,035,471 bags, the overall outlook remains cautious due to reduced cocoa production forecasts from Nigeria and evidence of weak global demand. The Nigerian Cocoa Association anticipates an 11% drop in production for the 2025/26 season at 305,000 metric tons.
5 Stocks Our Experts Predict Could Double In the Next Year
By submitting your email, you'll also get a free pivot & flow membership. A free daily market overview. You can unsubscribe at any time.
