Lean Hog Futures Decline Amid Tariff Updates and Export Data

Lean hog futures concluded Thursday’s session with minor losses, where contracts dipped between 7 and 95 cents in the nearby months. The USDA national average base hog negotiated price fell by $1.21 from the previous day, settling at $87.67 according to the Thursday PM report. The CME’s Lean Hog Index, referencing April 1, rose by 15 cents to reach $88.80.

Tariff Adjustments Impact Market

Recent tariff changes announced on “Liberation Day” did not affect Mexico and Canada, maintaining the exemption on all USMCA compliant goods. However, reciprocal tariffs of 24% on Japan, 25% on South Korea, and 34% on China (54% when including earlier tariffs) are set to take effect on April 9.

Pork Exports on the Rise

Pork export sales reached a significant 52,953 metric tons in the week ending March 27, marking the highest volume of the marketing year. Notably, Mexico accounted for 30,600 metric tons, while China imported 10,300 metric tons. Export shipments totaled 32,899 metric tons, representing a three-week high, with notable destinations including 12,200 metric tons to Mexico and 5,200 metric tons to South Korea.

February Trade Data Revealed

The US Census trade data released this morning indicated that 565.2 million pounds of pork were exported in February, down 2% from January and 4.8% year-on-year.

Pork Cutout Value and Slaughter Stats

USDA’s pork cutout value reported on Thursday increased by $1.11 to $94.81 per hundredweight. While the belly, picnic, and rib primals recorded declines, the loin primal saw a significant increase, rising by $7.04. Thursday’s estimated federally inspected hog slaughter was 488,000 head, bringing the weekly total to 1.926 million head. This reflects a decrease of 13,000 head from the previous week, but an increase of 106,548 head compared to the same week last year.

Lean Hog Futures Summary

Apr 25 Hogs closed at $87.375, down $0.075.

May 25 Hogs closed at $88.575, down $0.550.

Jun 25 Hogs closed at $95.550, down $0.975.

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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