Lean Hog Futures Rise as USDA Reports Slight Price Increase

Lean hog futures saw solid gains on Thursday, with increases ranging from $1.95 to $2.45. The USDA reported that the national average base hog negotiated price reached $90.77 in the afternoon, which is an increase of 49 points compared to the previous day. However, the CME Lean Hog Index dipped 2 cents, settling at $90.20 as of March 4.

Recently, trade negotiations have been in the spotlight, as President Trump announced a one-month pause on all tariffs related to the USMCA trade agreement encompassing Mexico and Canada. Additionally, Canada has postponed its planned tariffs on $125 billion worth of US goods until April 2.

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Export Sales data revealed that 42,449 metric tons (MT) of pork were sold for 2025 for the week ending February 27. This figure marks the second-largest total for this marketing year, representing a 16.6% increase from the same week last year. Mexico purchased 21,800 MT, while China accounted for 11,300 MT of the sales. However, total shipments decreased to 32,235 MT from the previous week, though this was still 0.8% higher than the same week in 2024. Mexico remained the top destination, receiving 13,500 MT, followed by Japan with 4,200 MT.

In terms of volume, the Census data converted to carcass weight showed that January pork shipments totaled 576.82 million lbs, a decline of 1.9% from last year and down 10.7% from December.

On Thursday afternoon, the USDA reported a slight increase in the FOB plant pork cutout value, which rose by a penny to $96.49 per cwt. Notably, prices for the belly, butt, and loin cuts all showed a decrease. Furthermore, USDA estimated that the Federally inspected hog slaughter for Wednesday was 485,000 head, bringing the total for the week to date to 1.817 million head. This figure is down by 141,000 head from last week and 76,135 head below the same week last year.

Closing prices for hog futures were as follows:

• April 25 Hogs closed at $86.650, up $1.950
• May 25 Hogs closed at $89.675, up $2.200
• June 25 Hogs closed at $97.025, up $2.450

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have positions in any securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are solely for informational purposes. For more details, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy.

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