On Tuesday, December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed at $0.2905 per pound, up by 0.70 (+0.24%), while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) fell to $1,564 per ton, down by 2 (-0.06%). Arabica prices hit a 2.5-week high due to dry conditions in Brazil impacting the 2026/27 coffee crop’s flowering stage, with limited rain forecasted for Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region.
Brazil’s coffee production for 2026 was revised upward to 67.6 million bags, with arabica projected to increase by 34.8% year-over-year to 48.21 million bags. This contrasts with robusta, expected to decline by 6.6% to 19.39 million bags. The International Coffee Organization predicts a global surplus of 3 million bags due to a record crop of 183.6 million bags, despite a slight decrease in consumption.
In August, Brazil’s coffee exports rose by 31% year-over-year to a record 4.155 million bags. Similarly, Vietnam’s coffee exports during January-August increased by 13.7% to 1.33 million metric tons, with a projected rise in Vietnam’s 2025/26 production to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons. The rising inventories in robusta coffee at a 10-month high, contrasted with the falling arabica stocks at a 27-year low, are influencing price dynamics. El Niño weather concerns may also impact the upcoming crop, prompting fluctuations in production and prices.
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