Global coffee prices are trending down with May arabica coffee (KCK26) decreasing by 2.15% to $6.80, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) fell by 0.08% to $3.00. This decline is attributed to projections of a record Brazil coffee crop of 75.9 million bags for the 2026/27 season, surpassing last week’s forecast of 75.4 million bags and marking a 15.5% year-over-year increase, as estimated by Marex Group Plc.
Robusta coffee prices are seeing limited losses despite falling ICE inventories, which dropped to a 2.5-month low of 4,173 lots. Additionally, Brazil’s February coffee exports showed a significant decline, with green coffee exports falling by 27% year-over-year to 2.3 million bags. Vietnam’s coffee exports have also risen, with a 14% increase year-to-date to 366,000 MT, placing further pressure on robusta prices.
The ongoing concerns over supplies are compounded by tight cash market conditions and the recent disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has raised global shipping costs for coffee importers and roasters.
