March arabica coffee (KCH26) fell by 1.20% to $4.30, while March robusta coffee (RMH26) decreased 0.13% to $5 amid forecasts of rain in central Brazil, alleviating dryness concerns. As of November 20, ICE-monitored arabica inventories reached a 2.5-month high of 461,829 bags, though still lower than the previous 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags.
Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 17.5% year-on-year to 1.58 million metric tons, contributing to pressure on global coffee prices. Brazil’s coffee production estimate for 2025 was raised by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, which is expected to further impact market dynamics. Additionally, U.S. imports of Brazilian coffee plummeted by 52% during the previous tariff period, totaling 983,970 bags.
For the 2025/26 season, the USDA forecasts global coffee production to reach a record 178.848 million bags, despite a decrease in arabica production by 4.7% to 95.515 million bags. In contrast, robusta production is projected to rise by 10.9% to 83.333 million bags, with Vietnam’s output anticipated to hit a four-year high of 30.8 million bags.
