Coffee prices are currently at a 4.75-month high, with September arabica coffee (KCU26) up 1.5% and robusta coffee (RMU26) up 1.91%. The price surge is attributed to heavy rainfall in Brazil, which has disrupted the coffee harvest and raised concerns about crop quality. According to Somar Meteorologia, Minas Gerais, Brazil’s primary coffee-growing region, received 31.3 mm of rain in the week ending June 28, significantly exceeding the historical average by 1,956%.
ICE arabica coffee inventories have fallen to a 2.25-year low of 377,465 bags, while robusta inventories saw an increase to a 2.75-month high of 4,053 lots. The potential for an El Niño weather event poses further risks to Brazil’s coffee production, with the U.S. NOAA estimating a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year, possibly leading to severe weather impacts in coffee-producing regions.
In related data, Brazil’s coffee crop for 2026/27 is projected at a record 71.9 million bags, a 14% increase year-over-year, while Vietnam’s coffee exports rose by 7.9% year-to-date. However, the International Coffee Organization reported a slight decline in global coffee exports for this marketing year, down 0.3% annually to 138.658 million bags.
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