**Sugar Prices Decline Amid Supply Concerns**
As of today, July NY world sugar #11 is down $0.10 (-0.70%), with August London ICE white sugar #5 down $2.50 (-0.56%). The decline is influenced by a drop in crude oil prices and the Brazilian real, triggering expectations of increased sugar production as mills shift from ethanol to sugar.
Recent reports indicate that Brazil’s Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 has risen 55.3% year-over-year to 2.475 million metric tons (MMT), with Thailand’s exports for January-April increasing by 29% year-over-year to 1.6 MMT. Concerns about possible disruption in global production due to an emerging El Niño, which might lead to diminished rainfall in key regions including Brazil, India, and Thailand, are also influencing market dynamics. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts an 82% chance of El Niño conditions developing by mid-year, highlighting the volatility in sugar supply forecasts.
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