May ICE NY cocoa (CCK26) declined by 1.00% to $33 and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26) fell by 0.25% to $6, driven down by a stronger dollar index reaching a 3.5-month high. Additionally, weather forecasts predict continued rainfall in West Africa, which could improve cocoa crop yields, creating bearish pressure on prices.
ICE cocoa inventories hit a 7-month high of 2,251,404 bags. In the ten days since the mid-year crop purchases resumed, local grinders have acquired over 400,000 metric tons of Ivory Coast cocoa. Despite this, Ghana recently cut its cocoa farmers’ pay by nearly 30%, while the Ivory Coast plans a 57% cut for the upcoming mid-crop harvest.
In the current marketing year, Ivory Coast cocoa shipments to ports reached 1.35 million metric tons, a decline of 3.6% year-over-year. Consumer demand remains weak, with Barry Callebaut AG reporting a 22% drop in cocoa sales volume, and the European Cocoa Association indicating a significant 8.3% decrease in Q4 grindings. However, Rabobank has revised its global cocoa surplus estimate down to 250,000 metric tons for 2025/26.
