On Monday, October NY world sugar #11 closed down 0.10 cents (-0.61%) at $16.21, and August London ICE white sugar #5 closed down 4.10 (-0.85%) at $476.30, reflecting market pressures due to improved weather forecasts in Brazil and an early monsoon season in India enhancing sugar crop outlooks. India saw June rains at 9% above normal, with forecasts for further above-normal rainfall in July.
Enhanced global sugar production forecasts contributed to the downward pricing trend, with the USDA projecting a record 2025/26 global sugar production of 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), up 4.7% year-over-year. Meanwhile, India’s sugar production is estimated to increase by 19% year-over-year to 35 MMT due to larger planted acreage and favorable rains, contrasting previously restricted export allowances.
Additionally, Brazil’s sugar output fell by 14.6% year-over-year to 9.404 MMT as of mid-June, with Conab reporting a 3.4% decline for the 2024/25 season attributed to drought and high temperatures. The International Sugar Organization projects a global sugar deficit of 5.47 MMT for 2024/25, indicating a tightening market following a surplus in the previous season.
