On Monday, October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed up +0.02 (+0.12%) and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) rose +2.70 (+0.83%), marking significant highs due to declining global sugar production. Concerns over weather conditions have contributed to a projected decline in sugar production in the EU and UK to 14.98 million metric tons (MMT), the lowest in 11 years, as reported by S&P Global Energy.
Brazil’s sugar production also faced challenges, with a 26.3% year-over-year decrease to 3.903 MMT in June, according to Unica. Analysts predict a global sugar deficit for 2026/27, with estimates ranging from -300,000 MT by Covrig Analytics to -3.3 MMT by Green Pool Commodity Specialists. India’s sugar crop is similarly threatened, with the Indian Meteorological Department forecasting below-normal monsoon rainfall, pointing towards potential production issues in the world’s second-largest sugar-producer.
As a result of these factors, market expectations have shifted significantly since July when sugar prices reached a 5.25-month low. Weather events, including the emergence of a strong El Niño, could further impact global sugar supplies in Brazil, India, and Thailand, leading to heightened market volatility and price increases as observed in recent trading sessions.
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