As of today, March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) is down 2.93%, while March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) has fallen 2.95%, marking one-week lows. Improved weather in West Africa is contributing to these declines, with favorable growing conditions expected to boost the February-March cocoa harvest in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. The Tropical General Investments Group reports larger and healthier cocoa pods compared to last year.
Chocolate maker Mondelez announced a cocoa pod count in West Africa that is 7% above the five-year average. The Ivory Coast is the world’s largest cocoa producer; however, port deliveries during the week ending December 28 totaled 59,708 metric tons, down 27% from the same week last year. Cumulative shipments for the new marketing year are at 1.029 million metric tons, a 2% decrease from the previous year.
Despite today’s price drop, cocoa futures may receive support from the addition of cocoa to the Bloomberg Commodity Index in January, potentially attracting up to $2 billion in investment. Additionally, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports have fallen to a 9.5-month low of 1,626,105 bags, while the International Cocoa Organization previously revised the global cocoa deficit for 2023/24 to 494,000 metric tons, the largest in over 60 years.
