As of today, May arabica coffee (KCK26) is down by 2.74% to a 1-week low, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) has decreased by 4.52% to a contract low. This decline is attributed to a forecasted bumper crop in Brazil, with StoneX raising its production estimate for the 2026/27 season to a record 75.3 million bags, up from 70.7 million bags.
Additionally, Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that February coffee exports fell by 17.4% year-on-year to 142,000 metric tons, and there was a significant drop in global shipping due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting coffee import costs. In February, global coffee production is projected to reach a record 180 million bags for the 2026/27 season, marking an increase of approximately 8 million bags from the previous year.
