On May 1, 2023, cocoa prices fell with May ICE NY cocoa (CCK26) down by 1.9% and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26) down by 1.66%. Despite this decline, prices remain above a two-week low recorded last Friday.
The outlook for a surplus cocoa crop from West Africa, particularly in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, is exerting downward pressure on prices. These regions produce over half of the world’s cocoa, with both countries announcing significant cuts to farmer payments—Ghana by nearly 30% and Ivory Coast by 57%—due to high inventory levels, which reached 2,326,443 bags, the highest in 7.5 months.
Concerns over demand persist as global cocoa grindings in Europe fell by 8.3% year-on-year, leading to considerations about the potential for a global cocoa surplus of 250,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, according to Rabobank. Additionally, shipments from the Ivory Coast show a 2.8% decrease compared to the previous year, totaling 1.39 million metric tons this marketing year.
