May arabica coffee (KCK25) declined by -10.95 cents (-2.84%) to a two-week low, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK25) decreased by -81 cents (-1.47%) on October 10, 2023. This downturn in arabica prices follows a forecast from Somar Meteorologia predicting widespread rainfall in Brazil’s Minas Gerais, the largest arabica-growing region, next week, alleviating previous drought concerns.
Additionally, Brazil’s February green coffee exports fell -12% year-on-year, recorded at 3 million bags, while the USDA forecasts a projected -4.4% decline in Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop to 51.81 million bags. Meanwhile, Vietnam, the leading producer of robusta coffee, saw a -20% drop in production for the 2023/24 crop year to 1.472 million metric tons due to drought conditions.
Global coffee export dynamics may impact future prices; for instance, Brazil’s exports rose +28.8% year-on-year to a record 50.5 million bags, yet global coffee exports fell -12.4% year-on-year in December. The USDA’s biannual report projected world coffee production for 2024/25 to increase by +4.0% year-on-year to 174.855 million bags.
