On September 1, 2023, arabica coffee prices (KCU25) fell by $5.30 (-1.77%), while robusta coffee prices (RMU25) dropped by $13 (-0.38%). This decline is attributed to ongoing tariff concerns related to President Trump’s potential 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee exports, which may adversely affect sales and increase Brazil’s coffee inventories.
In a report by the International Coffee Organization, global coffee exports for June 2023 rose by 7.3% year-over-year to 11.69 million bags, despite cumulative exports from October 2022 to June 2023 being down 0.2% at 104.14 million bags. Additionally, Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee cooperative announced its harvest was 74% complete by August 1, with Brazil’s overall coffee harvest for 2025/26 reaching 90% completion as of July 30, 2023.
Current challenges include a projected global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of 8.5 million bags, alongside a decrease in Vietnam’s coffee production by 20% in the 2023/24 crop year, attributed to drought conditions.
