Cocoa prices have reached six-month highs due to adverse weather conditions affecting supplies in the Ivory Coast and Ghana. On September 1, 2023, cocoa prices surged with September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) up 0.68% and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) up 0.64%. Heavy rains have disrupted farmers’ access to farms and ports, with the US NOAA noting a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño,” which may further stress cocoa yields.
Early projections for the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop indicate an expected production of 1.8 million metric tons (MMT), marking an 18% decrease from the previous year. The Ivory Coast has reported a 20% increase in shipments year-to-date for the current marketing year, totaling 2.04 MMT. In contrast, cocoa grindings in North America and Europe fell by 3.8% and 7.8%, respectively, further indicating weak global demand for cocoa.
Cocoa inventories in the ICE rose to a nearly two-year high of 3,063,831 bags, which will likely continue to influence price dynamics. The Nigerian Cocoa Association expects production to decline by 11% for 2025/26, while Ghana and the Ivory Coast have both cut farmer payments significantly, factors that could ultimately affect global cocoa supply and pricing.
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