On Tuesday, July ICE NY cocoa prices closed down 92 points (-0.92%) at $99.50, while July ICE London cocoa #7 fell 111 points (-1.71%) to $63.75. This decline follows forecasts of rain in West Africa, which is expected to benefit cocoa crops, alongside concerns over export slowdowns from the Ivory Coast where shipments reached 1.66 million metric tons (MMT) from October 1 to June 15, an increase of 6.4% year-over-year.
Current cocoa inventories in U.S. ports saw a rebound, climbing to a 9-month high of 2,310,539 bags, up from a 21-year low of 1,263,493 bags recorded on January 24. Additionally, the International Cocoa Organization revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to 494,000 MT, projecting a decline in production by 13.1% year-over-year to 4.380 MMT, marking the largest deficit in over 60 years.
Quality concerns regarding the Ivory Coast cocoa mid-crop have emerged, with about 5-6% of the mid-crop being classified as poor quality, compared to 1% during the main crop. The average estimate for this year’s mid-crop is 400,000 MT, a 9% decrease from last year’s 440,000 MT.
