On Friday, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed down by 152 points (-2.90%) while July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) fell 100 points (-2.56%). Cocoa prices decreased due to signs of increased global supplies, leading to long liquidation in futures. Notably, Nigerian cocoa exports in May surged by 28% year-over-year to 18,034 metric tons.
Cocoa prices had previously rallied over 20% earlier in the week, driven by concerns about the West African cocoa crop, particularly in Ivory Coast and Ghana, where heavy rainfall has disrupted farmer access to farms and ports. Despite rising supply, cocoa inventories at ICE reached a 1.75-year high of 2,948,286 bags, exerting downward pressure on prices. Weak global demand was highlighted by a 3.8% year-over-year decrease in North American Q1 cocoa grindings and a 7.8% drop in European Q1 cocoa grindings, marking the lowest level for the quarter in 17 years.
The outlook for the global cocoa market suggests a tighter supply, with Nigeria projecting a production decline of 11% for the 2025/26 crop year. Conversely, StoneX has revised its global cocoa surplus estimates downward, indicating a projected surplus of 149,000 metric tons for 2026/27, compared to earlier forecasts. Overall, the interplay of supply challenges and shifting demand continues to impact cocoa prices significantly.
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