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As of Thursday, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed down 0.05 (-0.33%) and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down 1.00 (-0.23%). This decline follows a drop in sugar prices earlier in the week, reaching a 1.5-week low after the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported a 43% year-on-year increase in Indian sugar production from October to November, totaling 4.11 million metric tons (MMT). Currently, 428 sugar mills in India are crushing cane, up from 376 a year ago.
The Brazilian sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 45 MMT, a 2.5% increase from previous estimates. In the first half of November, the Center-South region’s sugar output rose by 8.7% year-on-year to 983 metric tons. Additionally, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a 1.625 million MT surplus in 2025-26, largely attributed to increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.
Recent forecasts indicate robust global sugar supplies, negatively impacting prices. By November 13, London sugar futures had hit a 4.75-year low. Factors contributing to this bearish outlook include anticipated high production in Thailand, with projections of a 5% year-on-year increase to 10.5 MMT for 2025/26.
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