On March 11, 2025, May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) closed down 0.03 (-0.19%) and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) closed down 3.80 (-0.84%), reaching 1.5-week lows due to increased sugar production in Brazil. According to Unica, Brazil’s cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season rose 0.7% year-over-year to 40.25 million metric tons (MMT).
The Brazilian real strengthened, discouraging export sales, while earlier reports indicated a potential global sugar surplus. Projections from Czarnikow forecast a global surplus of 3.4 MMT for the 2026/27 crop year, contributing to lower sugar prices despite supply disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting approximately 6% of global sugar trade.
The International Sugar Organization expects global sugar production to rise by 3.0% year-over-year to 181.3 MMT in 2025-26, driven by increased outputs from India, Thailand, and Pakistan. The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association also reported a 10.5% year-over-year increase in India’s sugar output for the 2025-26 season, amounting to 26.2 MMT.
