**Sugar Prices Decline Amid Production Increases and Export Pressures**
As of today, July NY sugar #11 (SBN26) dropped by 0.19 cents (-1.34%), hitting a one-month low, while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) decreased by 2.80 cents (-0.65%). This week’s decline follows a report from Unica indicating Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production surged by 55.3% year-on-year to 2.475 million metric tons (MMT), aided by higher yields.
Thailand’s sugar exports also exert pressure, with a reported 29% year-on-year increase to 1.6 MMT between January and April 2026. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a record global sugar production of 182 MMT for the 2025/26 season, a 3.5% increase year-on-year, contributing to a revised surplus estimate of 2.2 MMT.
Compounding existing volatility is the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern, which NOAA anticipates has an 82% probability of occurring from May to July. The emergence of El Niño could threaten harvests in Brazil, India, and Thailand, essential regions for global sugar production.
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