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Arabica coffee prices are currently down 1.04%, reaching a four-month low, while robusta coffee prices have increased by 0.42%. Ample rain in Brazil, particularly in coffee-growing regions like Minas Gerais, eased crop development concerns, resulting in a projected 2.4% rise in Brazil’s 2025 coffee production estimate to 56.54 million bags.
Vietnam’s coffee exports surged 39% year-on-year in November, totaling 88,000 metric tons, while overall exports for the Jan-Nov period rose by 14.8% to 1.398 million metric tons. In contrast, Brazil’s November green coffee exports fell by 27% year-on-year to 3.3 million bags.
On the supply front, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories dropped to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags before recovering to 432,672 bags, while robusta inventories fell to an 11.5-month low of 4,012 lots. The USDA projects a record global coffee production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, with arabica production estimated to decline by 4.7% and robusta to increase by 10.9%.
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