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On Monday, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed up +0.02 (+0.14%), while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) fell by -3.00 (-0.70%). India’s sugar production surged by +43% year-over-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) from October to November, according to the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA), which reported that 428 sugar mills were operational as of November 30, up from 376 a year ago. This increase in production is limiting any potential rise in sugar prices.
Brazil’s sugar production estimates for the 2025/26 season were raised from 44.5 MMT to 45 MMT by Conab, with preliminary data showing a +8.7% year-over-year increase in sugar output to 983 MMT in the first half of November. Globally, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a surplus of 1.625 million MT in 2025-26, driven by higher output in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, marking a stark shift from the previous year’s deficit of 2.916 million MT.
India’s food ministry recently announced a reduction in the export quota for the 2025/26 season to 1.5 MMT, down from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, which may help support prices. However, increased forecasts for global sugar production, including a projected +3.2% rise to 181.8 million MT, continue to exert downward pressure on prices.
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