As of today, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) is down 0.34 points (2.30%), while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) has decreased by 6.80 points (1.61%). Sugar prices are at a one-week low, primarily due to India’s announcement that it may allow additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply surplus. India’s food ministry had previously indicated that 1.5 million metric tons of sugar would be allowed for the 2025/26 season.
India’s sugar production is expected to rise by 19% year-over-year to 34.9 million metric tons in 2025/26, according to the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories. This follows a significant drop of 17.5% year-over-year in 2024/25, marking a five-year low of 26.1 million metric tons. Additionally, Brazil’s sugar production forecast for 2025/26 has been raised to 45 million metric tons, contributing to bearish market conditions with an anticipated global sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for the same period.
The USDA projects global sugar production will reach 189.318 million metric tons in 2025/26, up 4.6% year-over-year. In contrast, global human sugar consumption is expected to increase by 1.4% to 177.921 million metric tons, while ending stocks are predicted to fall by 2.9% to 41.188 million metric tons.
