**Sugar Prices Surge on Supply Concerns**
As of today, July 3, NY world sugar #11 (SBN26) has increased by $0.05 (+0.35%) to reach a 6-week high, while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) rose by $4.00 (+0.84%). The rise is attributed to fears over reduced sugar yields and a lower sugarcane harvest in India due to weak monsoon rains, with cumulative rainfall reported at 42% below normal as of June 29. India’s Meteorological Department has warned of potentially the weakest monsoon in 11 years, affecting the period from June to September.
Additionally, Brazil’s sugar production is projected to decline, with the Center-South output for 2026/27 estimated at 6.838 million metric tons, a 2.0% decrease year-on-year, as millers shift focus to ethanol production. The percentage of sugarcane allocated for sugar has dropped significantly, indicating a broader trend influenced by rising crude oil prices and an anticipated El Niño weather pattern that could further disrupt global sugar supplies. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year, posing potential risks to both Indian and Brazilian sugar harvests.
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