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On Monday, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed down 0.45 cents (-2.96%) and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) down 14.40 (-3.31%). Sugar prices fell to one-week lows as India ramped up sugar production, with the India National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories reporting a 50% year-on-year increase in production from October to November, totaling 4.1 million metric tons (MMT).
Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, as reported on November 4. The International Sugar Organization forecast a 1.625 million metric ton surplus in 2025-26, after a deficit of 2.916 million metric tons in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.
India’s sugar exports have also been affected by the government’s December 14 approval allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, a reduction from earlier estimates of 2 MMT. The USDA has projected that global sugar production will reach a record 189.318 MMT in 2025/26, driven by output increases in Brazil, India, and Thailand.
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