As of today, March arabica coffee (KCH26) is down 1.90 points (-0.55%), while January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) closed up 42 points (+1.06%). The fluctuation in coffee prices follows widespread flooding in Indonesia, which could reduce the country’s coffee exports by as much as 15% in the 2025-26 season, impacting about a third of arabica farms in northern Sumatra.
Brazil’s agricultural agency Conab increased its 2025 coffee production estimate by 2.4%, reaching 56.54 million bags. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s Nov coffee exports surged 39% year-over-year to 88,000 metric tons, with total January-November exports up 14.8% to 1.398 million metric tons. The International Coffee Organization reported a 0.3% decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year, totaling 138.658 million bags.
Current ICE-monitored arabica inventories have dropped to 456,477 bags, marking a recovery after hitting a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags. Robusta coffee inventories recently increased to 4,278 lots, following a decline to an 11.5-month low of 4,012 lots. Increased coffee supplies from Vietnam, projected to rise by 6% to 1.76 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season, further underscore the mixed market conditions.
