Is It Time to Buy or Sell Alibaba Stock Before Q4 Earnings?

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Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) will report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on May 13. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects revenues at $35.23 billion, an increase of 8.12% year-over-year. Earnings per share are expected to decline to $1.22, a drop of 29.48% from the previous year’s quarter.

Alibaba has struggled with a mixed earnings history, registering a negative earnings surprise of 47.12% in the last quarter. The company has missed earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 10.28%. Currently, BABA holds an earnings ESP of -28.28% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Investors should approach the upcoming report cautiously, as challenges from aggressive subsidies and heightened competition have placed pressure on margins and cash flow. The company’s shares have decreased by 11.8% over the past three months, contrasting with sector growth rates of 21.7% and 6.7% for internet commerce and retail, respectively.

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