Jefferies Earnings Preview: Expectations and Insights for Upcoming Report

The market anticipates that Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) will report higher earnings on increased revenues for the quarter ending November 2024. This anticipated financial performance is vital for understanding the company’s earnings trajectory. However, actual results compared to estimates could significantly impact Jefferies’ stock price in the near term.

The earnings report is set for January 8, 2025. If the reported figures exceed expectations, the stock may rise. Conversely, missing these estimates could lead to a decline in stock value.

Key Earnings Predictions

Analysts expect Jefferies to report earnings of $0.85 per share, reflecting a substantial year-over-year increase of +183.3%. Expected revenues stand at $1.75 billion, representing a growth of 46.2% compared to the same quarter last year.

Analysis of EPS Estimates

The consensus estimate for Jefferies’ earnings has remained stable over the last month, indicating that analysts have not revised their projections significantly in that time. It’s important to note that changes in estimates by different analysts might not fully reflect the overall consensus.

Understanding the Earnings Whisper

Analysts often adjust their estimates close to an earnings release based on the latest business information available. Our Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model serves as a tool for assessing these potential surprises.

The Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate against the Zacks Consensus Estimate. This insight might provide additional clarity as analysts who refine their predictions last-minute likely have more current data. This method suggests that a positive Earnings ESP may signal stronger-than-expected earnings, especially when paired with a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy), or #3 (Hold). Research indicates that stocks with this combination tend to surprise positively nearly 70% of the time.

Conversely, a negative Earnings ESP score does not guarantee an earnings miss, as predicting positive earnings surprises is more challenging for stocks with low Zacks Ranks.

Current Estimates for Jefferies

For Jefferies, both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are the same, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0%. Meanwhile, the company holds a Zacks Rank of #3, complicating the ability to confidently predict an earnings beat.

Reviewing Earnings Surprise History

When analyzing future earnings, it’s insightful to consider past performances. In the most recent quarter, Jefferies was expected to report earnings of $0.80 per share but fell short, recording only $0.75, which represented a -6.25% surprise.

Over the last four quarters, Jefferies has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.

Conclusion: What Lies Ahead?

An earnings beat or miss alone may not determine whether a stock rises or falls. Other disappointing factors can lead to a drop even after an earnings beat, while unexpected positive catalysts can support a rally even with a miss.

Investing in stocks predicted to exceed earnings expectations can enhance success rates. It’s beneficial to evaluate both the Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank before earnings announcements. Jefferies may not appear as a standout candidate for an earnings beat; still, investors should consider various factors when deciding on their positioning with this stock prior to the earnings release.

Stay informed about future earnings reports with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF): Free Stock Analysis Report

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The views expressed here reflect those of the author and may not represent those of Nasdaq, Inc.