As of today, July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) has increased by 0.17 (+1.09%), while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) rose by 6.90 (+1.44%). This uptick follows a revision by JPMorgan Chase, which adjusted Brazil’s sugar outlook for 2025/26 to a deficit of -900,000 metric tons, previously predicting a surplus of +200,000 metric tons due to poor yields and low sucrose content in Brazil’s sugar harvest.
Despite this rise, sugar prices have been on a downward trend over the past three months, recently hitting a four-year low. The USDA projected a global sugar surplus of 41.188 million metric tons for 2025/26, driven by increased production in countries like India, expected to climb +19% year-on-year to 35 million metric tons. Concurrently, with the forecasted increase in global production, sugar prices are under pressure, partly due to a forecast of a significant production rise in Thailand to 10.3 million metric tons for the same period.
Additionally, the International Sugar Organization has revised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to -5.47 million metric tons. Notably, Brazil’s sugar output is reported down by -11.6% year-on-year through May 2025/26.
