Tesla’s Q1 Earnings Preview: Analysts Predict Profits and Growth

With a market capitalization of $770.1 billion, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), based in Austin, Texas, is a dominant force in the electric vehicle (EV) and clean energy sectors. The company operates through two key segments: Automotive and Energy Generation and Storage. Notably, Tesla commands a market share of approximately 70% in the U.S. EV landscape, distinguishing itself with a direct sales approach, innovative energy solutions, and its flagship Model 3—the leading EV in the nation.

Anticipated Earnings for Q1 2025

TSLA is set to reveal its fiscal Q1 2025 earnings after market closure on Tuesday, April 22. Analysts are forecasting a profit of $0.40 per share, which marks a 14.3% increase from $0.35 per share in the same quarter last year. Historically, Tesla has exceeded Wall Street earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters, missing on one occasion. In Q4 2024, the company outperformed the consensus EPS estimate by 6.5%.

Fiscal Year 2025 Projections

For the entirety of fiscal 2025, analysts predict the electric car manufacturer will report an EPS of $2.19, a 7.4% rise from $2.04 in fiscal 2024. Looking further ahead, EPS is expected to rebound significantly, growing 41.1% year-over-year to reach $3.09 in fiscal 2026.

Stock Performance Overview

Shares of TSLA have surged 37.7% over the last 52 weeks, outperforming both the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 5.1% decline and the marginal dip from the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) during the same timeframe.

Market Reactions and Analyst Sentiment

Despite falling short of Q4 2024 estimates with an adjusted EPS of $0.73 and revenue totaling $25.7 billion on January 29, Tesla shares rose 2.9% the following day. Investors seemed unfazed by the earnings miss, buoyed by the company’s commitment to start producing affordable vehicles in the first half of 2025. Furthermore, Tesla projected at least 50% growth in energy storage deployments, reporting a record 11 GWh in Q4.

On April 2, Tesla’s stock experienced fluctuation after the company announced disappointing Q1 delivery figures, which totaled 336,681 vehicles—a 13% decrease year-over-year. Nonetheless, the stock rebounded 5.3% after reports surfaced that Elon Musk may depart from his role with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), alleviating some investor concerns.

Analyst Ratings and Stock Target

Overall, analysts maintain a cautious consensus view on Tesla’s stock, assigning a “Hold” rating. Among 41 analysts covering the stock, 16 recommend a “Strong Buy,” 3 suggest a “Moderate Buy,” 12 rate it “Hold,” and 10 advise “Strong Sell.” This outlook is comparably more positive than three months prior when only 12 analysts recommended a “Strong Buy.” Currently, TSLA is trading below the average analyst price target of $320.56.

On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not hold positions, either directly or indirectly, in any of the securities mentioned in this article. Information is provided solely for informational purposes. For further details, please refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

More news from Barchart

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Nasdaq, Inc.