Marathon Petroleum Set to Report Q1 Earnings Amid Market Challenges

Company Overview

Valued at a market cap of $40.9 billion, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is an integrated downstream energy company involved in refining, transporting, and marketing petroleum products. Based in Findlay, Ohio, MPC distributes its offerings through a robust logistics system. This system is managed by its majority-owned subsidiary, MPLX LP, which includes pipelines, terminals, and marine operations. MPC is scheduled to announce its fiscal Q1 earnings for 2025 before the market opens on Tuesday, May 6.

Earnings Predictions

As this announcement approaches, analysts forecast that MPC will report a loss of $0.62 per share. This would mark a substantial decline of 122.3% compared to a profit of $2.78 per share in the same quarter a year ago. Notably, the company has shown a consistent ability to exceed Wall Street’s earnings estimates. In Q4 2024, MPC’s earnings per share (EPS) of $0.77 significantly surpassed expectations.

Future Expectations

Looking ahead to fiscal 2025, analysts project a profit of $7.28 per share for MPC, a decrease of 25% from $9.71 in fiscal 2024. Despite this dip, expectations for fiscal 2026 are more optimistic, predicting an increase of 56% year-over-year, bringing the EPS to $11.36.

Stock Performance

Over the past 52 weeks, shares of MPC have fallen by 32.7%. This performance lags significantly behind the S&P 500 Index, which has gained 6%, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLE), which has seen a 15.5% loss during the same period.

Recent Financial Highlights

On February 4, shares of MPC increased by 6.7% following its Q4 earnings report. Although the company’s adjusted net income fell 80.7% year-over-year to $0.77 per share, it exceeded analysts’ expectations by a significant margin, which likely reassured investors. The midstream segment reported positive results, with adjusted EBITDA rising 8.7% to $1.7 billion, driven by improved rates, increased volumes, and recent acquisitions. The renewable diesel segment also performed well, achieving an adjusted EBITDA of $28 million, recovering from a $47 million loss in the same quarter last year. However, total revenue declined by 9.1% year-over-year to $33.5 billion, primarily due to decreased sales and operating revenues.

Analysts’ Ratings

Wall Street analysts maintain a moderately optimistic outlook for MPC’s Stock, rating it as “Moderate Buy” overall. Among the 18 analysts following the stock, 12 recommend a “Strong Buy,” while six suggest “Hold.” The mean price target for MPC stands at $160.50, indicating a potential upside of 19.5% from current levels.

On the date of publication, Neharika Jain did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Nasdaq, Inc.