Market Decline Amid US-Iran Tensions

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On July 3, 2026, U.S. stock indexes saw significant declines: the S&P 500 fell 0.79%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.44%, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 0.61%. This market downturn followed President Trump’s announcement that the ceasefire with Iran is over, coupled with U.S. strikes against over 80 Iranian targets following attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices surged more than 7%, reaching a two-week high, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.59%, a 1.5-month high.

The U.S. MBA mortgage applications decreased by 2.2% for the week ending July 3, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbing to 6.58%. Meanwhile, Q2 earnings forecasts suggest a potential increase of 23%, driven largely by gains in AI infrastructure stocks. Current market estimates indicate a 33% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 28-29.

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