On Monday, the S&P 500 Index closed up 0.04%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index rose 0.13%. The Dow fell to a two-month low as stocks transitioned from early losses to gains driven by dip buying and positive manufacturing data. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index for February was reported at 52.4, higher than the expected 51.5.
Amid escalating tensions from U.S. military actions in Iran, with President Trump stating operations could continue for weeks, WTI crude oil surged over 6%, reaching an 8.25-month high, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was largely halted following Iranian attacks on three oil tankers. Goldman Sachs estimates a risk premium of $18 per barrel, assuming a six-week full halt to traffic in this critical oil route. The Iranian oil output is approximately 3.3 million barrels per day, constituting 3% of global supplies.
This week, the market is closely watching developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict, corporate earnings, and economic indicators. Upcoming reports include ADP employment change scheduled for Wednesday, and nonfarm payrolls expected to rise by 60,000 on Friday, while the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3%.
