Market Volatility: Crude Oil and Rising Bond Yields Impact Stock Performance

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The S&P 500 Index is down -0.03% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has decreased by -0.23% as of today, with the Nasdaq 100 Index up +0.20%. Notably, December E-mini S&P futures dropped -0.05% and December E-mini Nasdaq futures rose +0.17%. Crude oil prices have seen an increase of more than +1%, contributing to a rise in the 10-year T-note yield, now at 4.99%, up +5 basis points.

Weaker U.S. economic data, including an unexpected decline of -0.3% in August manufacturing production, has adversely affected market sentiment. Today’s market volatility may be heightened by the expiration of roughly $7 trillion in options, a quarterly event known as triple witching. Additionally, the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia is expected to return half its capacity after a recent shutdown, with production in August falling to 6.238 million barrels per day, the lowest since 1990.

Globally, the Euro Stoxx 50 is down -1.26%, while Japan’s Nikkei-225 and China’s Shanghai Composite have reported gains of +1.38% and +0.94%, respectively. Analysts indicate a 58% probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.

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