Marriott’s Stock Trails the Market Amid Sluggish Growth and Analysts’ Mixed Views

Marriott International, Inc. (MAR), based in Bethesda, Maryland, is a major player in the lodging industry, operating a wide range of hotel and residential properties. The company, with a market cap of $78.2 billion, manages renowned brands, including JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, W Hotels, Sheraton, Westin, and Marriott Hotels.

Comparison to Broader Market and Hotel Industry ETF

Over the last year, Marriott’s stock has lagged behind the overall market. MAR’s shares have risen 20.5%, but that’s less than the S&P 500 Index’s 22.3% gain. Year-to-date in 2025, MAR stock is up 1.6%, while the S&P 500 shows a stronger 4% increase.

Compared to the AdvisorShares Hotel ETF (BEDZ), MAR’s performance also falls short. The ETF has achieved a 22.6% rise over the same period, and its 3.7% year-to-date gain further exceeds Marriott’s returns.

Challenges Facing Marriott

The slow growth of sales and rising debt levels may explain MAR’s underperformance. Additionally, decreased revenue per available room (RevPAR) in the Greater China region, driven by weak domestic demand and economic obstacles, has significantly impacted the company’s overall results.

On February 11, Marriott’s shares dropped over 5% following the report of its fourth-quarter results. Although its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.45 surpassed Wall Street’s expectations of $2.38, the company’s revenue of $6.43 billion was a narrow beat against forecasts of $6.4 billion. For the fiscal year 2025, Marriott projects adjusted EPS between $9.82 and $10.19.

Analyst Perspectives on Future Growth

Looking ahead to fiscal 2025, analysts are optimistic about an 8.3% EPS growth, bringing it to an expected $10.10 on a diluted basis. However, Marriott’s history with earnings surprises has been inconsistent. It has met or exceeded estimates in two out of the last four quarters, but missed expectations on two other occasions.

Among 23 analysts tracking MAR stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy,” supported by six “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” and 16 “Hold” ratings.

This outlook is more favorable than a month earlier, where five analysts rated it as a “Strong Buy.”

On February 13, Argus analyst John Staszak maintained a “Buy” rating on MAR and lifted the price target to $335, suggesting an upside potential of 18.2% from current levels. The average price target of $299.14 indicates a 5.5% premium to the current price, while the highest target of $348 suggests a 22.7% upside.

On the date of publication, Neha Panjwani did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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