Corn Market Updates: Price Fluctuations Reflect Changes in Production

The corn market is experiencing some unwinding of the recent bull spread as midday prices show fractional declines in nearby contracts. However, the new crop December contract has risen by 1½ cents. As for the front month, the CmdtyView national average cash corn price stands at $4.40 3/4, down 3/4 cent.

Ethanol Production Declines Amid Inventory Increase

Recent data from the EIA indicates a drop in ethanol production, which fell by 42,000 barrels per day during the week of April 4, bringing total output down to 1.021 million barrels per day. Despite the decrease in production, stock levels rose by 422,000 barrels, reaching 27.034 million barrels. Exports did see a slight uptick of 112 barrels per day to 174,000 bpd; however, refiner inputs decreased, dropping by 26,000 bpd to 872,000 bpd.

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Upcoming Export Sales and USDA Projections

Expectations for the upcoming Export Sales data predict old crop corn sales ranging from 0.7 to 1.3 million metric tons (MMT) for the week of April 3. Additionally, sales for the 2025/26 crop year are anticipated to be between 0 and 150,000 metric tons.

The USDA is set to release its monthly WASDE report on Thursday morning. Traders anticipate a cut to the U.S. ending stocks estimate, projecting an average reduction of 30 million bushels to 1.51 billion bushels (bbu). The estimates vary widely, ranging from 1.405 to 1.605 bbu. Additionally, market participants expect slight reductions in South American production estimates, with Argentina’s forecast down by 0.7 MMT since March, now at 49.3 MMT. Brazil’s estimate is revised to 125.91 MMT, down from 126 MMT in March.

Current Price Summary

May 25 Corn is priced at $4.68 1/4, down 3/4 cent.

Nearby Cash is at $4.40 3/4, down 3/4 cent.

Jul 25 Corn is at $4.75, up 1/4 cent.

Dec 25 Corn is at $4.47 1/4, up 1½ cents.

New Crop Cash is at $4.10 1/4, up 3/4 cent.

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.