Wheat Market Faces Midday Losses Despite Strong Export Reports

The wheat complex is experiencing a pullback on Friday, giving back most of the earlier gains. Chicago SRW futures have fallen 10 cents in the front months, while Kansas City HRW contracts are down by 13 to 15 cents. Furthermore, MPLS spring wheat is also retreating, showing losses of 9 to 11 cents at midday.

Weather Forecast and Crop Progress Expectations

Rain is forecasted for the coming week in parts of the Southern Plains, extending from the Texas Panhandle to western Kansas. Heavier rainfall is expected to move eastward toward the Mississippi River. Markets are anticipating a 1% decline in winter wheat’s good/excellent ratings ahead of this afternoon’s Crop Progress report.

Weekly Export Data Reveals Shifting Trends

The USDA’s Export Inspections report revealed a total shipment of 604,461 metric tons (22.21 million bushels) of wheat for the week ending April 10. This figure represents an increase of 80.4% from the previous week, although it is down 2.53% compared to the same week in 2024. Mexico topped the list of import destinations, receiving 130,058 metric tons, followed by Japan with 83,533 metric tons. Overall shipments for the marketing year have reached 18.295 million metric tons (672.2 million bushels), reflecting a 14.42% gain from the prior year.

Traders Adjust Positions in CFTC Report

According to the weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report, managed money has reduced their net short position by 9,908 contracts, leaving it at 102,132 contracts as of April 8. In Kansas City wheat, they increased their net short position by 4,159 contracts, now totaling 49,834 contracts.

Ukraine’s Wheat Crop Projected to Decline

APK-Inform has projected that Ukraine’s wheat crop will decrease by 1% from last year, estimating a total of 21.5 million metric tons in a release on Monday.

Current Wheat Futures Prices

May 25 CBOT Wheat is priced at $5.45 3/4, down 10 cents.

Jul 25 CBOT Wheat is trading at $5.60 1/4, down 10 cents.

May 25 KCBT Wheat is at $5.55, down 13 cents.

Jul 25 KCBT Wheat stands at $5.69, down 14 1/4 cents.

May 25 MGEX Wheat is listed at $6.04 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents.

Jul 25 MGEX Wheat is at $6.19, down 9 1/2 cents.

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy
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The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.