Turbulent Closing for Soy Futures

The soybean futures market experienced a rocky close on Friday, with new crop prices ending the day in a mixed fashion. While nearby contracts saw an uptick of as much as a nickel at the close, new crop prices were fractionally mixed to 1 ¼ cents lower. May beans closed the week 6 ½ cents lower, leaving analysts and investors to ponder the shifting tides of this agricultural market.

Intertwined Market Dynamics

The CFTC data revealed a net of 138.3k contract short and a 28.2k contract long positions for the funds and commercials, respectively. Managed money traders engaged in a delicate dance of rolling longs to shorts, while PMPUs strategically added positions on both sides. Notably, the commercial soybean position saw a significant increase of 32.8k contracts, resulting in a net long of 28.2k contracts. Meanwhile, managed money traders found themselves at a net short of 138k contracts as of 4/2.

Impact of Global Markets

Brazil’s Ag Ministry reported that March exports from the South American country summed up to 12.63 MMT, marking a 4.6% decrease compared to March 2023. Such international developments serve as a reminder of the interconnected nature of the soy market, with global factors exerting influence on the day-to-day fluctuations in futures trading.

May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.85, up 5 cents, while nearby cash was reported at $11.30 1/1, reflecting an increase of 4 1/4 cents. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.96 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents, and Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.84 3/4, up 1 cent.

On the date of publication, Alan Brugler had no direct or indirect positions in any securities mentioned in this article. The information provided is for informational purposes only. For additional details, refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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