Analysts Anticipate Planting Intentions Report

Old crop cotton futures have shown a positive trend, with trading points gaining in the current session. However, nearby new crop futures, despite recovering slightly from their lows, are still experiencing a downward shift as the week begins.

Planting Expectations and Market Review

Market analysts are eagerly awaiting Thursday’s Planting Intentions report to gain insights into the projected 2024/25 cotton acreage. Estimates range between 10.4m and 11.3m acres, with the latter indicating a significant increase of 1.1m acres compared to the previous year and surpassing USDA’s Outlook Forum assumptions by 300k acres.

The recent USDA Cotton Market review detailed that 3,612 bales were sold at spot prices during the week, averaging 87.14 cents/lb. This season’s cash sales have already reached 796k bales, a notable improvement from 494k bales from the previous year and 1.54m bales two years ago. The Cotlook A Index recorded a slight decrease of 85 points to 97 cents flat as of 3/21.

Furthermore, the Adjusted World Price (AWP) was revised 360 points lower to 72.50 cents per pound, effective for farm program purposes until next Thursday. The ICE certified stocks as of 3/20 stood at 41,756 bales.

Market Closures and Outlook

In terms of market closures, as of the specified date:

May 24 Cotton closed at 92.02, reflecting a gain of 49 points,

Jul 24 Cotton closed at 92.53, up by 68 points,

Dec 24 Cotton closed at 83.9, down by 5 points.

On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data is for informational purposes only. For more details, please refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily align with those of Nasdaq, Inc.