Analysis of Wheat Futures Performance

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Current Market Trends

The nearby wheat market shows a mixed performance today, with winter wheat contracts experiencing a slight weakening of 1 to 4 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat contracts are up by 4 cents.

Export Data Insights

The recently released census data revealed that wheat exports for February stood at 67.9 mbu, marking a 27% increase for the month. However, this figure was down 1 mbu from the same period last year. Year-to-date, the total export volume has reached 491 mbu through February, lagging behind last year’s pace by 16%.

Export Sales Report

Today’s Export Sales report indicated that only 16,093 MT of wheat were booked in the week of 3/28. Projections for old crop sales ranged from -100,000 MT to positive 400,000 MT. New crop sales, on the other hand, surpassed expectations at 262,000 MT, exceeding the trade estimates of 75,000 to 250,000 MT.

International Market Movements

Japan is planning to purchase 113.5k MT of wheat in a regular MOA tender from the U.S., Canada, and Australia. Meanwhile, Jordan has opened another tender for 120,000 MT of milling wheat, with offers scheduled to be submitted by April 16. Notably, some Russian shipments are facing delays due to disputes over phytosanitary certificates, which have marginally strengthened the export market.

Current Wheat Futures Prices

As of the latest update:

  • May 24 CBOT Wheat is priced at $5.54 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents
  • Jul 24 CBOT Wheat is priced at $5.69 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents
  • May 24 KCBT Wheat is priced at $5.76, down 4 1/2 cents
  • Jul 24 KCBT Wheat is priced at $5.71 1/4, down 3/4 cent
  • May 24 MGEX Wheat is priced at $6.44, up 4 1/2 cents

On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


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