Analyzed: Contrasting Currents in the Soybean Sector

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Market Movement Overview

As the clock ticks toward midday, soybeans reveal a mixed picture with old crop futures nudging towards equilibrium and new crop futures showing a deviation of 2 to 3 ΒΎ cents upward. Soy Oil shines with a 1.5% uptick, leading the charge through the tumultuous Tuesday trading. Meanwhile, Soymeal prices are slipping $2.30 to $2.70, extending the losses from the previous week’s opening.

Export Report Insights

The USDA’s FGIS delivered the news of 414,484 metric tons of soybeans leaving the shore in the week ending 3/28. This figure pales in comparison to last week’s 785k MT and the 504k MT shipped during the equivalent week a year prior. The current export stats put bean shipments 18.7% behind the pace of the preceding year, with a total shipment volume of 36.98 million metric tons. Quite a significant lag in maritime activity.

Changing Landscape in Brazilian Production

StoneX has recalibrated its stance on Brazilian soybean production due to diminishing yields in MGDS, Sao Paulo, and Parana. The revised output forecast now stands at 150.8 million metric tons, a conclusive downward revision indicating turbulent times in the fields of Brazil.

Crushing the Numbers

February witnessed a less-than-jubilant crush for US soybeans, grinding out 194 million bushels, according to USDA’s Fats & Oils report unveiled this Monday. The cumulative crush for the marketing year halved, showing a positive uptick of 5.5% from last year at 1.170 billion bushels. Despite a slump in biofuel bean oil utilization in January, marking a nine-month low, the year-to-date trajectory maintains an impressive growth rate of 15% over the prior year.

May 24 Soybeans are holding steady at $11.83 3/4, down by a mere 2 cents. Nearby Cash comes in timidly at $11.29 3/4, slipping 1 7/8 cents. A similar story unfolds for Jul 24 Soybeans at $11.97 1/2, down by 2 cents. On the brighter side, Nov 24 Soybeans show resilience at $11.83 3/4, up by 1 1/4 cents.

Alan Brugler, at the time of the article’s release, had no direct or indirect stake in any securities listed. The data and insights presented herein are purely for informational purposes.

The opinions voiced by the author in this piece are personal and do not necessarily align with Nasdaq, Inc.’s stance.

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