Lean Hog Futures Decline While Pork Exports Show Strength

On Thursday, lean hog futures initially experienced a modest uptick. However, by midday, they were down 90 cents to $1. April futures were a notable exception, rising by 12 cents. According to the USDA’s Thursday AM report, the national average base hog negotiated price dipped by $1.62 to $87.34. The CME’s Lean Hog Index for April 1 increased by 15 cents from the previous day, reaching $88.80.

Impact of Tariffs on Agricultural Markets

Recent “Liberation Day” tariffs notably omitted Mexico and Canada, maintaining exemptions for all USMCA compliant goods. In contrast, reciprocal tariffs were established for Japan at 24%, South Korea at 25%, and China at 34% (54% when including earlier tariffs). These new tariffs are scheduled to take effect on April 9.

Pork Export Sales and Trade Data

Pork export sales for the week ending March 27 totaled 52,953 metric tons (MT), marking the highest volume so far this marketing year (MY). Mexico accounted for a significant portion, purchasing 30,600 MT, while China imported 10,300 MT. Export shipments reached 32,899 MT, presenting a three-week high, with 12,200 MT directed towards Mexico and 5,200 MT to South Korea.

Additionally, latest census trade data revealed that February saw a total of 565.2 million pounds of pork exported, which reflects a 2% decrease compared to January and a 4.8% decline from the same month last year.

Market Insights on Pork Cutout and Slaughter Numbers

The morning report from the USDA indicated that the pork cutout price fell by 13 cents to $93.57 per hundredweight (cwt). Key cuts such as belly, picnic, and ham primals all reported lower prices, with the belly cut leading the decline at $5.60. The USDA estimated Wednesday’s federally inspected hog slaughter at 485,000 head, summing up to a weekly total of 1.438 million head. This figure is down by 12,000 head from the previous week but up by 101,788 head compared to the same week last year.

Current Market Prices for April, May, and June Hogs

Apr 25 Hogs are priced at $87.575, showing an increase of $0.125.

May 25 Hogs are at $88.150, reflecting a decrease of $0.975.

Jun 25 Hogs stand at $95.600, down $0.925.

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. For more details, please refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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