Moderna (MRNA) is anticipated to exceed expectations when it reveals its fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results on Feb 22, prior to the market’s opening. Notably, in the previous quarter, the company outperformed predictions by 30.85%.
Key Considerations
It is expected that COVID-19 vaccine sales suffered a significant dip in the fourth quarter due to reduced demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter product sales stands at $2.45 billion.
Owing to the substantial drop in COVID-19 vaccine revenues compared to preceding quarters, it is envisioned that Moderna will report a quarterly loss.
Investor focus will also rest on Moderna’s progress with its pipeline. The company has 45 mRNA-based investigational candidates in various stages of clinical studies, targeting diverse indications, including cancer. Moderna is evaluating several candidates in late-stage studies such as mRNA-1647 (CMV vaccine) and mRNA-1010 (influenza vaccine).
In October, Moderna initiated a phase III study on mRNA-1083, its experimental combination vaccine against influenza and COVID-19. This study is poised to compare mRNA-1083 with independently administered licensed influenza and COVID-19 vaccines in two distinct age-group sub-study cohorts comprising 4,000 adults aged 50 to less than 65 years and another 4,000 adults aged 65 years and older.
The ongoing clinical trial landscape for Moderna also includes the phase III INTerpath-002 study on mRNA-4157 in the non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) indication, undertaken in collaboration with Merck. This study is examining the INT combined with Keytruda as an adjuvant treatment in adults with completely resected Stage II, IIIA or IIIB NSCLC compared with Keytruda alone. Global recruitment for the study has commenced, with the first participants enrolled in Australia.
Collaborative Endeavors Yield Revenue
Moderna also garners collaboration revenues from partners utilizing its mRNA technology to develop therapies targeting different indications. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for fourth-quarter collaboration revenues currently stand at $18.1 million and $10.0 million, respectively.
Earnings Surprise Track Record
Moderna’s history of delivering earnings surprises has shown a mixed pattern, with earnings surpassing estimates in three of the last four quarters but falling short on one occasion. The average surprise stands at 31.20%.
Stock Performance
Moderna’s shares have declined by 11.1% year to date, in contrast to the industry’s 1.2% growth.
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Earnings Expectations
The company’s earnings are anticipated to surpass expectations this time. The positive Earnings ESP, coupled with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold), increases the likelihood of an earnings beat, as is the case here. Notably, Moderna’s Earnings ESP currently stands at 37.55% as the Most Accurate Estimate of a loss of 51 cents is narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 82 cents. The company holds a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks Worth Considering
For investors seeking opportunities in the biotech space, Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) and Cullinan Oncology (CGEM) stand out as promising options with the potential to outperform earnings projections.
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, with an Earnings ESP of +25.58% and a Zacks Rank #2, is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 27, before the market opens. On the other hand, Cullinan Oncology, boasting an Earnings ESP of +1.04% and a Zacks Rank #2, has witnessed a rise of 78.9% in its stock value year to date.
Stay informed about upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
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The views expressed herein are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
